Biden Blocks Much-Needed Permits

After recently denying a permit to an enormous U.S. refinery in St. Croix, U.S Virgin Islands, which could supply petroleum products to the Northeast, President Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is denying a renewal permit to a coal-fired plant in Ohio that generates 11 percent of the state’s electricity. EPA denied the James M. Gavin plant—a 2,600-megawatt supercritical coal plant– in Gallia County permission to release coal ash into an on-site coal ash pond that was part of its normal operations since first coming on line in 1975. The plant is Ohio’s largest generator and the 8th largest coal plant in the nation.

EPA gave the facility near Cheshire 135 days to find another way to dispose of the ash. If it cannot find one, the plant may have to shutter. As is typical with the Biden administration, there is no analysis of the impact on the electric grid of the plant’s closure, nor what the impact on electricity prices would be since Biden’s goal is to make coal, oil, natural gas and electricity prices generated from those fuels very expensive. The Gavin plant is in the PJM Interconnection, which oversees the grid that supplies electricity to Ohio, 12 other states and the District of Columbia.

According to the coal industry, coal ash has not been definitively linked to any serious health problems and coal ash contamination was never detected in the groundwater near Cheshire. The EPA, however, indicated that the monitors measuring the groundwater could miss contamination because they are too far apart. According to the EPA, the groundwater monitoring around the ash pond is inadequate and the Gavin plant failed to conduct an appropriate statistical analysis of contamination data. Supposedly studies conducted by environmental groups have found trace amounts of coal ash contamination.

Coal ash regulations were finalized in the last year of the Obama Administration but were not enforced under the Trump administration where America first was the government’s energy policy, producing reliable, abundant and inexpensive energy. Earlier this year, however, the Biden Administration indicated it would revoke permission for some coal plants to release ash into unlined coal ash ponds.  This is presumably part of his “whole of government” approach to climate, building on his promise to “end fossil fuels.”  The Administration’s myriad actions can only be seen in this context as he has taken similar actions regarding oil and gas development and use.

Last month, EPA denied a request by the James M. Gavin Power Plant for extra time to comply with the federal coal ash rules. Barring any grid reliability problem that might justify a later deadline, the EPA indicated that no more coal ash can be released into the pond after April 12, 2023. The company that manages the facility plans to keep operating while converting to a “dry ash” handling system that complies with the federal rules.

The Gavin coal plant has already stopped placing coal combustion residuals into the Bottom Ash Pond and is expected to complete conversion of its units to dry ash handling this month. Dry ash handling generally uses air to cool coal ash for storage before commercial use or eventual disposal in a landfill. Unlike wet ash handling, it does not use water to clean out and transport ash. Landfills that receive dry coal ash should be properly lined and meet regulatory requirements in effect since 2015. The company also expects to close its bottom ash pond by September 2024.

The EPA still has not made final rulings for about 50 other coal plants that have asked for more time to comply with coal ash regulations. Plants that have sought extensions include two 1950s-era coal plants that are subsidized by Ohio ratepayers under House Bill 6: Clifty Creek and Kyger Creek. EPA issued a proposed denial on January 11 for the Clifty Creek plant—a 1,300-megawatt coal plant in Madison, Indiana. Clifty Creek officials applied for an extension until April 2023 to continue using the plant’s coal-ash basins, to give them time to construct alternative disposal systems. As with Gavin, the closure of the plant could cause increased and accelerated costs to the plant operator and could also negatively impact the stability of the electric grid and power markets.  EPA has not yet issued a decision on the Kyger Creek coal plant’s extension request. The Kyger Creek Power Plant is a 1,086-megawatt coal-fired plant located south of Cheshire, Ohio in Gallia County.

Conclusion

Under the Biden administration, the regulatory climate is not hospitable to coal, and it is forcing economic changes to fossil fuel plants that are moving the power grid toward renewable energy, particularly wind and solar power. While coal has been and continues to be a workhorse at U.S. power plants, regulations finalized during the Obama administration made coal plants uneconomic compared to natural gas plants. Now, the Biden administration is pushing to close the remaining coal plants that produce reliable power 24/7 because of its zero carbon policy, and transition the U.S. electrical system to wind and solar power that operates only when the wind blows and the sun shines.

Europe is finding that very low wind speeds are reducing wind’s generation levels and is forcing Europe to use more natural gas and coal for generation, which is increasing rather than decreasing emissions. The Biden administration may find the same result, but have no coal plants left to produce power when needed most despite having the largest proven coal reserves in the world.


*This article was adapted from content originally published by the Institute for Energy Research.

Transmission Permitting is Broken

Net zero proponents, such as Net Zero America at Princeton University, believe the United States needs to build between 2x and 5x as much electricity transmission as we have today. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that to meet President Biden’s goal of a zero-carbon gird by 2035, the transmission capacity must increase up to 3 times today’s capacity “or between 1,400 and 10,100 miles of new high-capacity lines per year starting in 2026.” One big question is whether this is even possible. Based upon the approvals for transmission given out by the Biden administration, there is no possible way to build that many miles of transmission lines.  

The White House recently celebrated their “ongoing efforts across the Biden-Harris Administration to accelerate the buildout of long-distance, high-capacity transmission lines.”  But a deeper look into what they are bragging about shows how deeply dysfunctional the federal government is with transmission permitting.  

The White House boasted that they “jumpstarted permitting for key transmission lines that cross Federally-managed lands. In 2022, three major transmission projects received final approvals for construction from the Department of the Interior,” including the Gateway South Transmission Line, Ten West Link Transmission Line, and Gateway West Transmission Line. Let’s investigate these approvals.  

Gateway South Transmission Line

In May 2022, the administration granted a “notice to proceed” for this 400-mile transmission line from western Wyoming to central Utah. This notice to proceed, however, was not “final approval for construction” as the White House claimed. A notice to proceed is an important step, but this notice to proceed (NTP) only “authorizes PacifiCorp to start non-surface disturbing, pre-construction work on the ROW.” 

Not only does the notice to proceed only authorize pre-construction work but it does not authorize preconstruction work for the entire transmission line. The notice to proceed states, “Several segments of the transmission line are excluded from this NTP. Segments of the transmission line excluded due to incomplete cultural treatments will receive an NTP issued by the BLM Field Manager within whose field office the cultural site is located, once BLM archaeological staff and the Field Manager determine the treatment has been completed in compliance with the Historic Properties Treatment Plan (HPTP).” While PacifiCorp has started some work, there is no green light to start with the actual construction.  A partially permitted transmission line does not transmit. 

The process of authorizing this transmission line has been slow. It started in November 2007, when PacificCorp first submitted an Application for Transportation and Utility Systems and Facilities on Federal Lands (SF-299) to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) for this project. It then took 9 years for the BLM to reach a Record of Decision and then an additional 5½ years for PacifiCorp to receive the notice to proceed on parts of the line.  

All told, 15 years have passed since PacifiCorp submitted their original application for this transmission line and actual construction has not yet begun.  Nor has such construction been permitted.    

Ten West Link Transmission Line

In July 2022, the administration granted approval for the construction of the Ten West Link Transmission line—a proposed 125-mile transmission line from Tonopah, Arizona to Blythe, California. This is great news, but the approval was still not a speedy process.  

In the case of Ten West Link, the application (SF-299) was filed in September 2015 and the Bureau of Land Management worked through a relatively speedy process and signed the Record of Decision in November 2019—a mere four years. But it still took along 3 years after the Record of Decision for the federal government to give the go-ahead to start construction.  Less than 7 years from filing an application to start of construction is still not fast enough to even double our transmission capacity before 2050  

Gateway West Transmission Line

In September 2022, BLM signed a notice to proceed for some of the segments of this proposed 1,000-mile long transmission line from eastern Wyoming to western Idaho. Like Gateway South, these approvals have been over a decade in the making.  

This transmission line was first proposed in May 2007. From the proposal to the Record of Decision (ROD), it took 6 years until November 14, 2013. But even then, the BLM explains, “The ROD identifies the BLM authorized route on public lands for Segments 1 through 7 and Segment 10. As explained in the ROD and initially presented in the final EIS, the BLM has chosen to pursue a phased decision for the project, deferring the decision for Segments 8 and 9 until a later date.” In other words, after 15 years, there still is no final approval to construct this transmission line.  The uncertainty associated with deferring a decision on the entire route stifles investment since builders are properly concerned that conditions may change the economics of any proposal, triggering potential additional delays and red tape. 

The White House bragged about giving three projects “final approval for construction” but it appears that only one of the three received an actual final approval for construction. The other two—Gateway South and Gateway West were both proposed over 15 years ago and have yet to receive approval to fully construct the transmission lines.

There are currently around 160,000 miles of high-voltage power lines in the United States. The White House is proud of making progress toward approving less than 1,600 miles of transmission lines—not for actually approving 1,600 miles of transmission lines but for making progress. Progress is good, but it has taken over 15 years for the federal government to make this progress, which would increase capacity by 1 percent. Given these examples of the slow transmission permitting process by the federal government, it does not appear possible to get enough transmission permitting to achieve President Biden’s goals. It has taken 15 years to permit a 1 percent increase in capacity, while Biden’s plans call for a 200 percent to 500 percent increase in a dozen years.  Something is wrong with their math.   

Europeans Plan on Banning EV Charging To Avoid Blackouts

Switzerland may ban electric vehicles from being used except for “essential” purposes this winter as government officials plan for a possible energy crisis during the winter months. Swiss officials drafted emergency proposals that restrict power usage if electricity shortages occur this winter. They include fewer hours for shop owners, limited use of streaming services, lower temperature settings on buildings of 20 degrees Celsius or 68 degrees Fahrenheit, bans on concerts, theater performances and sporting events, as well as only essential use of electric vehicles. The irony of the electric vehicle restriction is that present government policy has electric vehicles ramping up to 50 percent of new car sales by 2025. It’s tough to convince car buyers to go electric if the government restricts their use because of an electricity shortage. Switzerland fears possible blackouts because the country relies on hydropower for 60 percent of its electricity production, but in the winter months that production slows and the country must rely on imports to fill the gap. Electricity is expected to be in short supply in Europe this winter, so import reliance may become difficult.

Switzerland’s emergency plan is split into two tiers: crisis and emergency. It also has three levels of restriction in the first tier and two levels of restriction in the third tier. Swiss officials will activate each tier and level based on supply level. Essential items such as medical care or the supply of water or energy will not be restricted.

At the lowest level, buildings will only be able to be heated to 20 degrees Celsius and residents will be asked to limit their washing machines to a maximum of 40 degrees Celsius. Under the next level, temperatures will be lowered to 19 degrees Celsius and streaming services asked to lower the resolution of videos from HD quality to standard. If the situation worsens, shops will be asked to close two hours early and electric vehicles limited to essential journeys. Under crisis measures, hot water may be disabled in public bathrooms and the use of electric leaf blowers barred. Next, escalators will be stopped and outdoor Christmas lighting turned off. If shortages persist, cryptocurrency mining would be banned, along with closure of swimming pools and the banning of lights in sports stadiums. If the most extreme shortages hit, sports matches, concerts and theatre performances would be canceled, and all leisure businesses forced to close.

These measures are being made necessary by decades of actions in Europe against the use of fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy, mostly intermittent wind and solar power, ostensibly in pursuit of meeting climate commitments. Wind has been performing poorly in Europe recently with very low wind speeds resulting in low levels of generation.

Switzerland’s Sources of Generation

Besides hydropower, Switzerland generates electricity from nuclear power, which it wants to phase out despite its contributing a third of electricity supply, and fossil fuel plants and solar or wind generation provide the rest. In the wetter months, rainfall and snow increases hydroelectric power and the country exports much of it. But in the colder months when hydroelectric generation slows, Switzerland imports from neighboring countries. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, combined with the transition to renewable energy in Europe, has made the level of those imports uncertain.

In the past, Switzerland has imported electricity from France and Germany. The French government recently started instructing officials around the country to plan for potential rolling electricity outages as soon as next month. Any scheduled power cuts in France would be telegraphed days in advance and would hit small sections of the country at different times. The cuts, which would last for two hours in the mornings or in early evening, when power use is at a high, would not apply to sensitive sites, including hospitals, nursing homes, fire and police stations and prisons.

France gets most of its power from its 56 nuclear power plants, but many of its plants are down for maintenance. The country is struggling to repair a series of problems that have left nearly half of its nuclear fleet offline, limiting exports. Électricité de France, or EDF, which runs France’s nuclear power plants, announced the restart recently of a large reactor in northern France, although further delays are expected at other nuclear sites.

In Germany, sales of candles have soared as that country was most dependent on Russian natural gas. Germany is now burning coal and lignite to get through the winter. Elsewhere, Britain’s National Grid operator has warned households of possible blackouts from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. if natural gas used to produce electricity runs short. Electric car owners in Finland are being advised not to heat their plugged-in vehicles on freezing mornings to avoid straining the grid. The mean temperature in Finland during the winter is below freezing. A recent report by the European Network of Transmission System Operators showed that electricity supplies in France, Sweden and Finland, among others, were at risk of outages.

Unseasonably warm weather during October and November in Europe allowed households and businesses to keep their furnaces turned off, helping natural gas stocks last longer than expected and bringing down natural gas prices. But Europe is now facing its first major cold snap, with an Arctic air blast from Greenland expected to send temperatures plunging in coming days. Governments have already been dipping into some of the emergency gas reserves, driving European natural gas prices back up to their highest levels in six weeks.

Switzerland’s Climate Goal

Switzerland’s climate goal is to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. The Swiss, however, do not intend to reduce emissions by that much within their own borders. Instead, it is paying poorer nations, like Ghana or Dominica, to reduce emissions and give Switzerland credit for the reductions. For instance, Switzerland could pay to install more efficient lighting and cleaner stoves in up to five million households in Ghana, which would help households to move away from burning wood for cooking. Switzerland would then get to count those emissions reductions as progress toward its own climate goals.

Whether this mechanism is fair is at issue. At the United Nations climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, the issue of reparations from wealthy countries to poor countries arose, which raises the issue of the extent to which rich nations should be compensating poorer countries. If nations do as Switzerland intends, it could delay climate action in wealthier parts of the world while shifting the work of reducing emissions toward the global poor, who already suffer from a shortage of energy. In addition, it could take advantage of projects in poorer countries that would have proceeded anyway, with or without foreign funding.

Switzerland has been explicit that it cannot reach its emissions reduction targets on its own, and that it needs to look for at least a third of its cuts elsewhere. It already generates the bulk of its electricity from non-carbon energy — namely, hydroelectric and nuclear power — making further emissions cuts difficult.

Conclusion

Switzerland has a several-tier system for reducing electricity usage should power shortages occur. Part of the plan is to require only essential uses of electric vehicles, despite wanting them to supply 50 percent of new car sales by 2025. Switzerland obtains most of its electricity from non-carbon sources and feels it needs to get further reductions from the global poor to meet its carbon goal of 50 percent reduction in emissions by 2030. That raises issues as expressed above. Clearly, going to net zero carbon is not easy and very expensive. Is President Biden, who is following in Europe’s footsteps, understanding the issue correctly? Has he explained the magnitude of the issue to the American people?  Americans may be able to peer into their own futures if government energy policies are not changed by watching Europe closely this winter.  Its prospects for reliable energy are not good and could be even worse in future years.


*This article was adapted from content originally published by the Institute for Energy Research.

Biden Backs Corrupt Dictators Over American Energy Producers

President Biden is continuing with his program of “anywhere but the United States” when it comes to oil investment and future production. The United States is allowing Chevron to resume pumping oil from its Venezuelan oil fields that U.S. sanctions had halted almost three years ago. The license was granted to Chevron after President Nicolás Maduro’s government agreed to implement an estimated $3 billion humanitarian relief program and continue dialogue in Mexico City to supposedly hold free and fair elections. The license, granted by the Treasury Department for six months, allows Chevron to return to its oil fields in joint ventures with the Venezuela national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PdVSA). Venezuela is, as Democratic Senator Menendez of New Jersey noted, a criminal dictatorship with some of the worst human rights violations in the world. The idea that Maduro is going to implement free and fair elections is a pipe dream that Biden touts so that he can obtain oil from Venezuela while eventually destroying the U.S. oil and gas industry. Maduro is so blatant in his election abuses that on January 10, 2019, the Organization of American States (OAS) Permanent Council approved a resolution to not recognize the Nicolas Maduro dictatorship.

Chevron is also allowed to resume oil exports that were halted since 2019 when the United States increased sanctions against Venezuela. All exports should go to the United States and the company will be allowed to import feedstocks, including diluents used to bolster oil production, from the United States. In 2020, before the United States ordered a complete halt of drilling operations, Chevron’s share of Venezuelan oil production was 15,000 barrels a day–less than the production of a single oil field in the Permian Basin. Under the new license, Chevron will be able to repair and do maintenance in existing oil fields, but new drilling is not authorized. Venezuela’s destruction of their oil industry is widespread and the money grifted is used to buy votes, as in the case of keeping gasoline prices as low as 9 cents per gallon in their urban stronghold of Caracas.

According to the Biden administration, the license prohibits PdVSA from receiving profits from Chevron’s oil sales. Under the new license, profits from the sale of oil are supposed to go toward repaying debt owed to Chevron by PdVSA. Chevron plans to restore lost output as it performs maintenance and other essential work, but it will not attempt major work that would require new investments in the country’s oil fields until debts of $4.2 billion are repaid, which could take about two to three years depending on oil-market conditions.

The United States will require that Chevron report details of its financial operations to ensure transparency. According to Chevron, the new license allows it to commercialize the oil currently being produced at its joint-venture assets, which it will do in compliance with the current framework. The license prohibits Chevron from paying taxes and royalties to the Venezuelan government.

Venezuela produces about 700,000 barrels of oil a day, compared with more than 3 million barrels a day in the 1990s. Some analysts believe Venezuela could hit 1 million barrels a day in the medium term, a modest increment. Current U.S. rules prohibit both American and foreign companies from buying Venezuelan oil. To skirt sanctions, PdVSA had rerouted oil cargoes away from obscure export channels and to mostly Chinese buyers at a steep discount.  China has lent more money to Venezuela than any other country in the world, with much of the collateral in promised oil. Biden’s move to increase Venezuelan oil production thus makes China’s economic situation stronger relating to their vast lending to the Venezuelan government.

The multibillion-dollar humanitarian agreement — a verbal accord that has not yet been signed by the Maduro government — amounts to a concession by Mr. Maduro, who has long denied the scope of the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. The estimated $3 billion in frozen funds intended for humanitarian relief and infrastructure projects in Venezuela would be administered by the United Nations, taking years to fully implement. The Venezuelan state funds frozen in overseas banks by sanctions are expected to be used to alleviate the country’s health, food and electric-power crises in part by building infrastructure for electricity and water-treatment needs, freeing up monies for Maduro to spread around to his political allies in the business community.  More than seven million Venezuelans, a quarter of the population, have fled to other nations under the Maduro dictatorship and recently, a record number of Venezuelans have arrived at the U.S. border for asylum.

Conclusion

Biden’s nonsensical energy policy is bad for the U.S. economy, harmful to U.S. national security, and a way to aid and abet enemies of freedom. Rather than sticking with President Trump’s America First energy policy, Biden prefers to get our oil and gas from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and other OPEC nations, while denying our ally and neighbor, Canada, further access to transportation across the border.  The United States under President Trump’s energy policy became energy independent for the first time in decades and was able to remove OPEC’s power to set oil prices. Increased domestic production alleviated the need for imports from Venezuela, making supplies from communist dictatorships unnecessary.

Biden, through his anti-U.S. oil and gas policies and by refusing to lease federal lands to expand U.S. oil production in states like Alaska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, New Mexico and Texas, is increasing oil prices and gasoline and diesel prices for consumers not only in the United States, but worldwide. Moreover, he is courting totalitarians and strengthening them by buying their oil. The Biden administration should allow American energy producers to unleash domestic production instead of begging dictators for oil.


*This article was adapted from content originally published by the Institute for Energy Research.

The Unregulated Podcast #110: In a Dark Room

On this episode of The Unregulated Podcast Tom Pyle and Mike McKenna discuss Europe’s energy emergency and a week of crowded headlines.

Links:

Biden Telling “A Flat Out Lie” About US Energy, Tom Pyle on Varney & Co.

Monday, November 29, AEA president Tom Pyle joined Ashley Webster on Fox Business to discuss Biden’s latest verbal attacks on American energy producers. Watch the video below to see Tom call out Biden’s lies regarding what is reducing America’s energy output. Read more about the 125 ways Joe Biden and his allies in Congress have made it harder to produce energy in the United States here.


Follow Tom on Twitter for his latest on America’s energy policy.

Biden’s EPA Reveals Astronomical “Social Cost of Carbon” Proposal

President Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a new estimate for the social cost of carbon emissions that nearly quadruples the interim figure from the Obama Administration. The Biden administration has been using the Interagency Working Group’s interim value of $51 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, but EPA has proposed increasing it to $190. Agencies use the number in their analyses of the costs and benefits of climate regulation on sources ranging from power plants and automobiles to the oil and gas sector. The higher the social cost of carbon, the easier it is to reject projects involving natural gas, coal and oil.  The Trump Administration used a value between $1 and $7 a metric ton. The interim value of $51 per metric ton has raised legal challenges from several states, including Louisiana and Missouri.

Source: E&E News

EPA is requesting public comment on the estimate, which it made public when it released its proposed methane standards for the oil and gas sector. The new social cost estimates were not used as part of that analysis, but they were included in a separate 137-page supplemental document dated September 2022. The document estimates the social cost of carbon as $120, $190 or $340 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, using discount rates of 2.5 percent, 2.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. The discount rates reflect the weight given to emissions of carbon dioxide. A higher rate means a lower dollar value is assigned to those emissions; a lower rate assigns more dollar value to them. In addition to carbon, EPA also calculates social cost values for methane and nitrous oxide.

Federal agencies are responsible for incorporating the social cost of carbon in their analysis and evaluating how they would be applied in rulemaking. The Interagency Working Group’s role is to have agencies share resources and streamline the process so that each agency does not recreate the process from scratch. It is unclear whether the figures released by EPA reflect changes the working group is also considering. In the supplemental document, EPA noted that it was participating in the working group’s work and that the process is ongoing. The Interagency Working Group originally planned to release its proposal in April. EPA’s draft technical report is available to the working group as it continues its work.  EPA began working on the social cost of methane and integrated it into some rulemaking before the Interagency Working Group undertook the work.

EPA has a new “modular” approach recommended by the National Academy of Sciences to producing the estimates that includes four steps, or modules, of the estimation process: socioeconomics and emissions, climate damages and discounting. The resulting values supposedly represent a range of climate outcomes. EPA had previously used preexisting models for the current interim values. The interim analysis gauged costs at $14, $51 and $76 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, using discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The new EPA figures are $120, $190 and $340 using discount rates of 2.5 percent, 2.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

The difference between the current interim figures and EPA’s proposal is due mainly to the change in the discount rates used; EPA used a 2 percent discount rate, rather than the 3 percent rate used in calculating the interim value. The updates to the functions, model, socioeconomics, and pricing of risk also increased the value of the social cost of carbon by about one-third.

The firm, Resources for the Future, provides a calculator for obtaining the carbon tax for various types of fossil fuels using different assumed social costs of carbon (SCC).  While the SCC is not a direct carbon tax, it acts like one when analyzing fossil fuel projects, elevating their costs against their benefits. The Biden administration will use it to increase the costs of fossil fuel projects in its regulatory analyses and other analyses across the federal government.  At $190 per metric ton for the social cost of carbon, the carbon tax for gasoline, which would be added to the cost of gasoline in any federal analysis, would be $1.71 per gallon, making electric vehicles more economic against internal combustion vehicles. In the case of a new 1,000-cubic-foot natural gas project, the carbon tax would be $10.09.  For sub-bituminous coal, used in the generation of electricity, the carbon tax would be $320 per ton, most likely making coal plants uneconomic. This gives the government a strong argument to reject fossil fuel projects or to add enormous regulatory costs to them.

Status of Litigation

Federal agencies are currently using a social cost of carbon value first developed by the Obama administration, adjusted for inflation. The federal government has already faced strong opposition from several states on its adoption of the interim value of $51 per metric ton, which is far more than the value that the Trump administration used of $1 per metric ton. The states argue that the Biden administration lacks the authority to raise the metric under the Constitution.

In February, Judge James Cain Jr. of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana blocked the use of the metric by issuing an injunction, saying it imposed regulatory costs on the states. A federal appeals court rejected that decision, and the Biden administration has received other positive outcomes in court defending the current interim metric of $51 per metric ton.

In March, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals overturned the ban, ruling that the states had raised “merely hypothetical” arguments to show that they face immediate harm from the Biden administration’s use of the climate metric. Attempts to reverse the ruling at the Supreme Court did not gain traction later in the spring. The case, however, is not yet fully resolved. The appeals court will hear oral arguments on the challenge on December 7. Last month, the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found that another lawsuit failed to show “actual injury” from the administration’s use of the social cost of carbon.

The new EPA figure should not immediately affect regulations or any of the litigation since it has not yet been finalized. The new figure, however, could be indirectly used in litigation because it contains a more detailed analysis of the reasons for looking at carbon emissions, which was the biggest difference between the Obama estimates and those of the Trump Administration, which only included direct impacts in U.S. territory. The Obama and Biden Administrations both used assumptions about international impacts to increase costs of American projects.

Conclusion

The Biden Administration has raised the mythical social cost of carbon estimate from the already high level of $51 per metric ton to $190 per metric ton by decreasing the discount rate and changing the methodology and parameters in its climate model. Because the social cost of carbon is essentially a direct tax leveled on energy usage, almost quadrupling the value will raise energy prices in the federal government’s analyses—prices, which are already 50 to 100 percent higher since President Biden took office in January 2021. The energy crisis will get even more severe if this proposal is finalized, as it will unleash a vast amount of new expensive environmental regulations, the costs of which will be added to consumer prices.  Already, blackouts and brownouts are expected in the Northeast if a cold winter occurs and diesel stockpiles there are at very low levels, causing rationing to take place in several areas.

EPA’s proposal will next undergo a peer-review process that should solicit comments that show how dangerous this proposal is to the U.S. energy system and American well-being. The social cost of carbon is simply another front in the war on domestic oil, coal, and natural gas.


*This article was adapted from content originally published by the Institute for Energy Research.

The Unregulated Podcast #109: Honest Liars

On this episode of The Unregulated Podcast Tom Pyle and Mike McKenna discuss the next moves for the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, Biden’s inflation problems, and more headlines from a busy week.

Links:

Staggering Price of Biden’s “Net-Zero” Agenda Passed to Consumers

If the United States is to reach President Joe Biden’s 2050 net zero carbon economy goals, it will need to increase its electricity generation capacity by as much as 480 percent to comply with the Paris Climate Accord. According to a recent report, firm capacity should increase by 300 to 400 gigawatts from today’s level of 850 gigawatts and intermittent wind and solar capacity should at least quadruple from the current 200 gigawatts. The study, jointly released by the Electric Power Research Institute and GTI Energy, found that the United States would need to build its firm capacity to between 1,140 gigawatts and 1,450 gigawatts and its wind and solar capacity to between 800 gigawatts and 3,700 gigawatts. The new capacity would, in part, replace existing capacity, which does not need to be retired, but Biden’s net zero carbon goals mean that existing plants will be shuttered and replaced by new politically correct capacity that U.S. consumers and taxpayers would be funding. So, not only are fuel costs going up based on Biden’s energy policies, but electric costs will skyrocket as all the new generating capacity is brought online.  Americans will be asked to divert enormous sums to meet Biden’s goals, which have never been legislatively confirmed.

The Study

The study analyzed a number of different scenarios, depending on technology availability and cost. Based on the various scenarios, total new capacity in the electric sector would need to range from 1,650 gigawatts to 4,860 gigawatts (160 percent to 480 percent of today’s levels). According to the study, achieving economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide emissions while attempting to maintain reliability requires a broad set of low-carbon technologies. Firm capacity resources, which are needed to backup intermittent resources, include nuclear, geothermal, hydrogen, hydroelectricity, bioenergy (with and without carbon capture), natural gas with or without carbon capture, and electricity storage technologies (for example, battery storage, pumped hydro, and compressed air energy storage).

2050 Electric Generation Capacity by Resource 

Source: Electric Power Research Institute

The study notes that electricity from existing nuclear provides essential firm capacity in a net-zero energy system. In a scenario in which carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is restricted, new advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors, provide about 60 gigawatts of generating capacity as a carbon-free baseload option by 2050.

In all scenarios, new gas- and/or hydrogen-fueled electric generating capacity plays a critical role in providing resource adequacy and flexibility for reliable power generation. New natural gas plants with CCS emerge as a key firm capacity option for the electric sector, providing up to 33 percent of generation, and, potentially, a significant portion of hydrogen and ammonia production.

Natural gas infrastructure plays a crucial role in providing firm capacity for a transitioning power sector and delivering low-carbon fuel to industry and buildings, particularly in colder climates. The composition of delivered gas varies by scenario and may include a blend of fossil, renewable and synthetic natural gas, and hydrogen. U.S. natural gas consumption could remain at levels similar to today, even in a net-zero energy future. With higher natural gas prices, pipeline gas consumption declines to around 15 quadrillion Btu, about half of today’s level. Without CCS, renewable and synthetic natural gas can substitute for fossil supply as the economy-wide emissions target approaches zero; in this case, pipeline gas consumption decreases to around 17 percent of today’s level. Even with lower volumes of delivered gas, pipeline capacity requirements remain to serve peak demands.

Hydrogen’s use as a low-carbon fuel is projected to increase, whether through fuel cell vehicles, blending with the natural gas supply to support needs in buildings, or through direct use for process heating in industries. Some studies suggest the cost of heating a home would double if hydrogen were required instead of natural gas. The roles of hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels expand significantly if CCS and forestation are limited, increasing clean electricity generation by around 4,000 Terawatt hours to support production from electrolysis—as much as the total U.S. electricity generation today.

Continued expansion and modernization of electric transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure are essential to support increased integration of renewables, electrification, and flexible demand-side resources, as well as enhance reliability and resilience during the energy transition. Electric T&D investments increase over time in all scenarios.

Conclusion

Getting to a net zero economy requires a massive change in the U.S. electric system by both replacing much of our existing generating capacity and building new generating capacity to meet all the new electricity demands from supplying power for electric vehicles to meeting the nation’s heating demands. Along with new generating capacity requirements are additional transmission and distribution requirements as our aging grid will need massive upgrading plus new lines to bring power from remote areas where wind and solar capacity can find the sun and the wind. The undertaking is massive, will be expensive, and likely unreliable as goals are being pushed without much forethought to cost, availability, and feasibility. The massive increase in U.S. generating capacity in less than 3 decades from between 1,940 to 5,150 gigawatts, compared to 1,080 gigawatts today is simply mind-boggling. The costs will be staggering, and paid for by consumers and a diversion of the nation’s wealth.


*This article was adapted from content originally published by the Institute for Energy Research.

Biden Brags About Dismantling Energy Independence

“No one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it, even if they have all the coal guaranteed for the rest of their existence of the plant,” Biden said at a recent event touting his administration’s economic policies in Carlsbad, California. He continued to tout: “We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar.” But, the facts are: In 2021, the United States generated 21 percent of its electricity from coal—almost twice as much as wind and solar combined. Wind and solar power are intermittent sources that cannot compete with coal because they are only available when the wind blows and the sun shines. As inherently part-time energy, renewables require backup power either from coal, natural gas, or nuclear power or from expensive storage batteries that are not included in their cost estimates. The truth is,  U.S. residential electricity prices have increased by 27 percent since 2010, as more and more renewable energy has been mandated and subsidized into the system.  And, those prices will continue to increase as Biden pushes more wind and solar on the system, requiring all those additional expenditures.

To understand the unreliability of intermittent wind, one only must look at statistics from Alberta, Canada. Alberta has 32 wind farms with 3,076 megawatts of capacity. But, on Tuesday evening, November 7, during the peak supper usage period, Alberta’s 32 wind farms were producing just 15 megawatts of electricity, hovering very close to that level for at least the next eight hours, which is just 0.5 percent of capacity. By 12:30 that night, wind power production across hundreds of wind turbines in an area larger than Belgium, Luxemburg and the Netherlands combined was just three megawatts—0.1 percent of capacity. No nation and particularly no superpower should make wind and solar power the basis for its electricity system if it wants to continue its superpower status. Someone should tell Biden.

China and India Continue to Build Coal Plants

Biden has made shifting the United States out of fossil fuels the centerpiece of his program to reduce carbon emissions. However, as the United States shutters coal plants, China and India are building them. In April, China announced it will increase coal output by 300 million tons this year—that increase alone being about half of total U.S. coal production.  China already consumes about 8 times as much coal as the United States. Despite Chinese President Xi Jinping pledging last year that China would start cutting coal consumption in 2026, state think tanks are expecting coal-fired power generation capacity to increase by 150 gigawatts over the 2021-2025 period. These plants easily operate for 4 or 5 decades. The new plants would put China’s known coal-fired generation capacity at 1,230 gigawattsabout 6 times the U.S. coal-fired generating capacity.  And increasingly, the U.S.’s plants sit idled since wind and solar have first access to the grid.

India too depends mostly on coal generation and it is preparing to add as much as 56 gigawatts of coal-fired generation capacity to meet growing demand for electricity. The increase in coal-fired capacity would represent about a 25 percent increase in the country’s current 204 gigawatts of coal capacity. Coal-fired generation accounts for about 75 percent of the country’s consumption of coal. According to India’s prime minister, India is prioritizing “reliable” power to further economic growth—something President Biden is not doing for Americans. China has announced the same goals regarding reliability and security.  India also intends to import coal as needed to buttress its own domestic supply of coal. India primarily imports coal from Indonesia, but it has also imported coal from Russia despite western sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

China accounts for over half of all global coal-fired electricity production and India accounts for another 12 percent. China’s coal consumption produced over 70 percent of China’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2021—a growth rate of 2.5 percent from 2020. China’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2021 were over twice those of the United States and are growing. In fact, their 2020 emissions were equal to the emissions of the United States, EU27, Japan and India combined. India’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2021 were 12.5 percent higher than in 2020 and the third largest in the world, behind China and the United States.

Source: Global Carbon Project

Coal Plants Are Efficient and Clean

The coal plants that China is building are state-of-the-art with environmental controls. Research by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) shows that a new coal plant with environmental controls reduces nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 98 percent, and particulate matter by 99.8 percent compared to plants without controls. According to NETL, over the next 30 years, new coal production of 145-345 million tons could result in 47,500 coal mining jobs. The carbon products could also result in product value of near $139 billion and 480,000 manufacturing jobs tied directly to carbon products. U.S. air quality has steadily and substantially improved in recent decades because emissions from coal plants have steadily declined. Between 1970 and 2021, the combined emissions of the six common pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10, SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO and Pb) dropped by 78 percent.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency

Conclusion

President Biden spouts off without knowing the data, particularly when it comes to energy. As Senator Joe Manchin said, Biden’s remarks were “outrageous and divorced from reality” while also dismissing “the severe economic pain the American people are feeling because of rising energy costs.” Manchin also said, “Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden and instead believe he does not understand the need to have an all-in energy policy that would keep our nation totally energy independent and secure.”

Coal is reliable, efficient, and clean and the preferred choice of China and India. If the United States transitions from fossil fuels to wind and solar power, it will mean no change in global emissions for China and India will be producing more emissions than the United States reduces, negating any effect. Further, it will make our electric system unreliable, place our national security in an increasingly perilous status, and cost Americans more for energy as wind and solar power require backup from expensive storage batteries, for which China dominates the world supply chain. Europeans have found that reliance on wind and solar power is highly correlated with higher prices for energy and electric power. Germany’s energy transition started decades ago and their residential electricity prices escalated to triple U.S. residential electricity prices and the highest in the industrialized world, even prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That is what Americans can look forward to under Biden’s energy policies.


*This article was adapted from content originally published by the Institute for Energy Research.